Fight for the Troops 2 picks, Vegas-style – Yahoo! Sports (blog)

For a card with plenty of toss-up fights, Ultimate Fight Night 23 has some pretty big numbers. Remember the odds are set to balance the public’s opinion on the fights. The public is a little shaky on its perception of some these battles. Let’s see if we can find some underdog value.

Melvin Guillard (26-8, 9-4 UFC) looks like a new fighter since his move to Albuquerque to work with fight guru Greg Jackson. Jackson has moved Guillard away from his reckless ways of the past. He’s a more composed fighter now. Is that enough to steal plus-200? Dunham is aggressive, well-rounded and dangerous from his back. That could be the issue for Guillard, who has fallen victim to submission in all four of his UFC losses. 

Matt Mitrione (3-0, 3-0 UFC) enters his fight against big Tim Hague at a UFC career-high 260 pounds. He did look bigger across the shoulders, but does the extra weight mean he’s less conditioned? Should Mitrione, with just three pro fights under his belt, be a minus-260 favorite against any experienced MMA heavyweight? This looks shaky. We’re not laying that kind of number on a guy who’s career wins have come against Kimbo Slice, Marcus Jones and Joey Beltran. There’s solid value with Hague.

The same goes for Beltran against Pat Barry. Barry says he more focused for this one, but does he have the intensity and gas tank to finish the fight? Barry is still carrying a little extra weight at 240 up from 233. It makes Beltran worth a play at plus-190. 

Yves Edwards is an intriguing favorite. The price is big at minus-270, but Cody McKenzie (12-0, 1-0 UFC) only has one path to victory, the guillotine choke. His wrestling and striking is below par. Edwards (39-16, 7-4 UFC) has suffered some losses over the last 10 years, but only one via submission. 

Fight for the Troops 2 betting odds (Courtesy Lagasse Stadium):
Official plays in bold 

Melvin Guillard (+200) vs. Evan Dunham (-250) – Lightweight
Tim Hague (+200) vs. Matt Mitrione (-250)- Heavyweight
George Roop (+210) vs. Mark Hominick (-270) – Featherweight
Joey Beltran (+190) vs. Pat Barry (-240) – Heavyweight
Matt Wiman (+130) vs. Cole Miller (-160) – Lightweight
Mike Guymon (+130) vs. DaMarques Johnson (-160) – Welterweight
Cody McKenzie (+210) vs. Yves Edwards (-270) – Lightweight
Willamy Freire (-120) vs. Waylon Lowe (-110) – Lightweight
Amilcar Alves (+170) vs. Charlie Brenneman (-200) – Welterweight
Rani Yahya (+280) vs. Mike Brown (-360) – Featherweight
Chris Cariaso (-115) vs. Wil Campuzano (-115) – Bantamweight

Source: Fight for the Troops 2 picks, Vegas-style – Yahoo! Sports (blog)

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